|
| ||||||||
| ||||||||
|
Biosecurity BriefingWorld Bank Estimates Pandemic Would Cost the World $3 Trillion in Economic LossesBy Nidhi Bouri, October 27, 2008 According to a Bloomberg report on October 17, 2008, the World Bank estimates that a flu pandemic could cost the global economy more than $3 trillion and could result in the deaths of 71 million worldwide. In June 2006, the World Bank estimated that in a pandemic the global gross domestic product (GDP) would drop by 3.1%, or around $2 trillion. However, this more recent estimate by the World Bank indicates that a pandemic could cause the global GDP to drop by 4.8%. A decrease in tourism, retail sales, and transportation, as well as an increase in employee absenteeism would contribute to the drop in GDP. However, the World Bank estimates that “measures to avoid infection,” including vaccine development and poultry slaughter, would account for most of the costs in a pandemic. World Bank economists stated that because a global pandemic would spread very quickly, adequate preparation on a global level is necessary.1 In a recent case study published by the Journal of Medical Systems, researchers assessed the economic impact of a hypothetical H5N1 influenza pandemic on Turkey under 3 different attack rate scenarios. The study accounted for the direct costs of vaccination and antiviral treatment, as well as the indirect cost of work absenteeism in its calculations. The study found that, depending on vaccination strategies, the economic impact of pandemic influenza on Turkey would be between $1.364 and $2.687 billion.2 References
|